Tech Predictions '09: The Review

It is that lovely time of the year again. “The 50 random things of the year” are on the telly, podcasts are talking about what they want for the coming year, people are saying what a great year it was, how many fantastic things happened this year. And I am writing my predictions. Don’t think this is them though, I’m not releasing them until the early hours of Jan 1st (although that is GMT, so some Americans may see them before 1st Jan). This is, however, my review of the year. Looking at my predictions from last year and seeing how correct I was.

So, go have fun reading over what I said this year, and if you were better than me in predictions, let me know. They are over the jump.

Well, this one came true. They eventually released it in October (Q4). Granted, it wasn’t by much, but it was still some.

Also true.

I can’t prove this one, but I think it happened.

This is one that can be highly debated. It really depends on what you would say is the “year of linux”. Let us take phones, for example. The most popular phone is the iphone. However, apart from that, there are a handful of phone operating systems. There is windows mobile, android, webos, symbian, maemo, and a number of small proprietary operating systems that dont even have a name. 3 out of those are linux based operating systems. And one of them is possible the fastest growing mobile operating system out there citation needed. A year ago, there was 1 linux based phone. That was it. Now there are countless. That, to me, is successful, and could be counted as the year of linux.

Let us take netbooks. Now, Microsoft say that linux has, 7% of the netbook market, i believe. Whereas slashdot say it is 32%. Let us put it somewhere in the middle, just to be fair to Microsoft. Ok, 20%, that is fair. Now, I believe that the netbook is outselling laptops, and has about half the portable computer market share. I may be wrong and I was struggling to find information about it. But, by these calculations, Linux has 20% of 50%, which is 10% of the market share. A year ago, Linux beat the 1% barrier. 1%-10% is quite a huge leap. Now, obviously, this is very unscientific.

My point is, Linux has jumped in leaps and bounds over the past year, and if these 2 things aren’t enough to tell you that this year was the year of linux, then it will never be the year of linux unless linux has 100% market share.

Yep, got a replacement motherboard in April.

Also true. I did mean the HTC android phones by the way, and there have been at least 2. I think there might have been a third as well.

Well, I was on the correct continent.

Ok, this one failed. Nothing in the consumer market that is anything other than silicon. Ach well.

This is my favourite one. I’m so pleased I got this one correct. Granted, they haven’t fully released it yet, but we have the source code. And the main point is they told us this is happening. I remember when I said this one, I had so many people telling me that this was never going to happen, but I fully believed it did. And, I believe it will be a good thing for google, for linux and for the internet. But that is a different thing.

This one came true. I really hoped it would, but when we got to middle of December and it still wasn’t even in RC, I started to doubt it. But it got released 2 weeks ago, and it is immense. Check my review earlier if you haven’t read it already.

Not so much. Windows 7 only had 1 extra fancy feature in aero, and yeah sure, mac has its stuff, but nothing 3d yet. Its all very boring. I’m still sitting here on my cloud with my 3d desktop waiting for the mac and windows users to float up. Hey, Windows still doesn’t have workspaces…

So, by my calculations, I got 9/11 correct for last year. Lets see what happens next year. If you predict anything for next year, let me know as well.