Tech Predictions: 2010 and 2010-2019

First of all, happy new year!!!

Ok, so, in light of the recent year change, I decided it would be good to do my 2nd annual tech predictions. I also realised that this is the beginning of a new decade as well. So, because of this, I’m doing a bunch for the coming year, and a bunch for the coming decade. Obviously, the decade ones will be a bit more exciting, and probably a lot more wrong.

This year has been such an exciting year, that my ideas of technology, and what will happen in the future, are hugely different from what they would have been if I’d been looking 10 years into the future this time last year rather than just now. We all have different ideas, however, so please please let me know if you agree/disagree with what I’ve said, or if you have made some predictions of your own, let me know. If I get a lot of people telling me their predictions I may post a blog post about what I think about them, with links to your blogs and stuff, so that might be an incentive to comment. I want lots of comments on this blog post in the coming months, and even years as I have put the next decades predictions as well.

I think I said in my last post that I would have 10 predictions, well, I couldn’t keep it to only 10 for each, so there are more. But anyway, on with the predictions. Go through the jump to see them.

Predictions for 2010:

  1. Linux market share in netbooks will increase to about 40%
  2. We will see a lot more niche devices. Devices won’t be as clear cut as desktops, laptops and netbooks. Instead we will just get computers, and computers will have different spec. And people will buy whatever spec fits them most.
  3. Sony will announce the PS4, but it will not be released until 2011 Q1 in Japan. Later for US and Europe. Games for it will not be available on optical disks. They will be download only, although available on usb sticks from game shops for people who can’t download. It will also have 3D games as a big feature.
  4. Although Nokia said they will only release 1 maemo phone next year, they will release at least 3, starting to phase out symbian.
  5. AMD and Intel will release 6-core processors, and will be as common as quad-core processors by the end of the year.
  6. Nintendo will announce the Wii 2 at EEE, and will release just before christmas in US and Japan. Europe in 2011 Q2. It will continue to use the wiimote technology, but will branch it out to using it with other limbs. You will have different things you can strap onto yourself and do more with it, in my opinion.
  7. Google, starting with the possible nexus one, will start selling hardware directly (made by other companies, but actually sold by google). Starting with mobile phones, but eventually including tablets, netbooks and desktops.
  8. 3D will become all the rage…but not like what people are saying. I think that films will not all end up being 3D. Yes, films will continue to be 3D, but it really is in games that it will be huge. Games will all include 3D options, so that they are so much more immersive.
  9. IPv6 will start to become the standard. Yes, it really will, finally, I’m sure of it.
  10. OLED tvs will become hugely popular, and more will be sold of this type than of LCD or plasma, due to a huge decrease in price in Q2.
  11. Augmented Reality will become large, and will be included in contact lenses, so you don’t have to use glasses, a projector with a computer strapped onto you, or a mobile phone.

Predictions for 2010-2019:

  1. Operating system usage will be a lot more wide ranged over all computers. On desktops and laptops/netbooks, windows market share will decrease to under 50%, with osX, linux and other unixes increasingly gaining market share.
  2. The xbox 720 will be released later than the Wii 2 and the PS4. Probably 2012. It will still use optical discs, and will finally have a blueray drive.
  3. Microsoft will end of life Windows CE, and will try and develop, from scratch, a new mobile OS.
  4. Star Trek will create a new series with the cast of the most recent film (not necessarily tech, but still).
  5. Noone will ever ask the question “Does this hardware work with this operating system?” unless it is less than a month old.
  6. Sound will work properly in linux.
  7. Virtual reality will start to become very huge in gaming, and other things. It will be included in things like the PS5, and also a Tom Clancy-like internet will be invented, where you have your own virtual space that you can go into. It won’t be standard, but it will be available for the normal person.
  8. 50% of people will be online. This is an increase of 2.5 Billion people within 10 years.
  9. Every day items will stat to gain internet connectivity. Your fridge, your central heating system, your pen even. They will all be able to talk to each other as well.
  10. We will finally see the end of optical storage. It is so 20th century, and we will start to use flash for everything.
  11. Internet access will be considered a human right by the middle of the decade in most countries, and it will become an every day thing that most people have, in the world.